I am frightened; truly frightened. Mostly, I am afraid that I am right, and it is too late to change things for the better. Once the pebble has passed through the surface of the still pool, the waves have been generated, and the ripples will reach the shores; this is the definition of inexorable. It is how the world works. It still makes me feel very frightened.

The Honorable George W. Bush is riding high. He is such a winner at the moment that the mainstream media are actually praising him and his actions. The idea that people want freedom in their "natural state," a la Rousseau, is gaining momentum is not necessarily a bad or wrong idea. However, where one's success leads is often to attempting to exceed the previous success with another, even greater success. This often leads to overreaching, and often to results that some people might not have expected, and which deviate drastically from their original expectations. I believe that men and women the world over yearn for freedom. I also believe that there is a natural desire for political and economic self-determination.

I also believe in Occam's Razor, or at least that others believe in Occam's Razor. Occam's Razor is the proposition that the simplest explanation for any phenomenon is the correct explanation. The belief in Occam's Razor also leads people to look for the simplest solution for any problem, or group of problems. In practice, that means that if a solution works for one problem, it will probably work for a similar problem.

All of the above preamble is to cover me for when I tell you what I think I see in the near future. The Lebanese are attempting to get their freedom from Syria. The Bush administration is urging the Lebanese to force the issue. The Bush administration is urging the Syrians to leave Lebanon totally and rapidly. The Bush administration has advised the Syrians that a partial withdrawal is "unacceptable." The Lebanese will gain their independence from Syria in the very near future and the Syrians will completely withdraw from Lebanon. The Bush administration will not very modestly accept the applause of the world. The Bush administration will praise the Syrians for their decision to comply, but the Syrians will now be holding the winning card. The Syrians will call on the Bush administration to force Israel to leave all Syrian territory totally and rapidly.

After the entire Golan is returned to Syria, we can only pray for the "green line" as the best final settlement. We are traveling down a slippery slope and the government of Israel greased the slope with a "unilateral disengagement." Someone please show me where I am wrong. Show me how it can turn out any better than that. I can't see any way that the entire case is already settled in the minds of the world, and the only choices left to us are the "green line" or the boundaries of the UN Partition Plan. The UN Partition Plan, of course, gives the Arab State of Palestine those ever so important "contiguous borders" and if you remember, we, the Yishuv have already agreed to the non-contiguous Partition borders.

I hope that I am not a prophet, but I still wake up in a cold sweat several times a night.

Shalom Yedidi HaTov,

I've just finished reading your article. It is as usual well thought out and shows your concern for the future of Israel and the Jewish people. That's why I would like to try and put your mind at ease, if I can and may.

I think that you are being overly optimistic about the Syrians leaving Lebanon in the near future. The Syrian regime cannot afford to leave Lebanon at all, neither willingly or unwillingly. The reasons are as follows:

There are 1,400,000 Syrians working in Lebanon and sending their salaries back to Syria. The loss of these jobs would be a serious blow to the Syrian economy as this money would stop flowing into Syria, and the Syrian economy cannot find jobs for these workers if they have to return home.

The Syrians need an occupied Lebanon with Hizbollah sitting on the border with Israel instead of the Lebanese army in order to carry out the proxy war that has been going on for the last 20 years. A free Lebanon with a disarmed Hizbollah would bring an end to this proxy war and leave Syria open to direct Israeli retaliation for any hostile acts that would be committed directly from her territory.

Therefore, willingly withdrawing from Lebanon would more than likely bring about the fall of the regime which is in the hands of the much-hated Alawite minority.

Being forced out of Lebanon would lead to the same fate for the Alawites as the regime would be conceived as weak and ready for toppling.

Events of the last few days and hours show that the Syrian withdrawal to the Bekaa Valley is only window dressing and that Damascus has no intention of being run out of Lebanon so easily. The Hizbollah demonstration yesterday, along with the increased pressure on the Lebanese opposition groups also indicate the true Syrian intentions vis a vis withdrawing from Lebanon. We just heard on the news that a new puppet government has been installed in Beirut.

Regarding the Golan Heights, the Syrians have consistently botched getting them back, and I see no reason to expect the Syrian government not to continue the time-honored tradition of never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

I think that you can put your mind at ease on that score.

Regarding the contiguity problem please go to this website: http://www.answers.com/topic/1947-un-partition-plan. There you will see a map of the Partition Plan that the UN General Assembly approved. neither the Jewish State nor the proposed "Palestinian" State were actually contiguous as this map clearly indicated. This should be the central theme of the anti-contiguity campaign that should be launched against the State Department and White House.

Brachot,

Joel

© 2005 Rabbi Haim Cassorla and Joel Block

To contact Rabbi Haim Cassorla, please send emails to: Rabbi Haim Cassorla

Rabbi Haim Cassorla